The first firmware for the Sony Xperia S and its Japanese equivalent, the Xperia NX, has just been certified by the PTCRB. In both cases, the firmware certified was version number 6.0.A.1.249, which we imagine is based on Android 2.3.7, although this hasn’t been confirmed.
We would expect this to be the first iteration of the firmware before the handsets release in around a month’s time (Xperia S in early March and Xperia NX in late February). You can find the PTCRB page for the Xperia S here and the PTCRB page for the Xperia NX here.
Thanks @wimpiedb!